Introduction to the Crypto Market Pattern
The current crypto market is mirroring the pattern seen in 2017 when Bitcoin posted a steady uptrend throughout the year before skyrocketing in December, according to crypto research platform Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal. This observation has sparked interest in understanding the potential trajectory of the crypto market in the coming months.
A Similar Pattern to 2017
Pal noted, “It’s spookily similar to 2017,” in a video on Thursday, where he discussed the similarities between the current market trend and that of 2017. He is starting to forecast a longer crypto cycle this time around, given that the business cycle score — a macroeconomic model he uses to track where the global economy is in the broader cycle — is “still below 50” and it generally “takes a while to climb up.” This suggests that the market may be poised for a significant increase in the coming months.
Historical Context of Bitcoin’s Price
Bitcoin started 2017 trading around $1,044 before reaching $2,187 by May 31 and closing the year at $14,156, an approximate 1,255% increase from its price at the beginning of the year, according to CoinMarketCap data. This historical context provides insight into the potential for significant growth in the crypto market.
Macro Data and the Crypto Cycle
However, Pal speculated that the weakening US dollar could indicate that the current crypto cycle is still far from reaching its peak. “With the dollar breaking down even today, it’s starting to suggest this may go into Q2 2026,” he said. Since Jan. 1, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8.99%, sitting at 98.77 at the time of publication, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin and the DXY are inversely correlated, meaning that when the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not just as a speculative investment but as an alternative currency.
Market Conditions and Growth Phase
Pal said macroeconomic data has likely been a primary catalyst in pushing the crypto cycle back further. “It’s like the whole cycle got shifted cause rates didn’t get adjusted; the dollar was sideways for a period of time,” he said. He also suggested that current market conditions may resemble 2020 more than 2021, indicating that the market could be in an earlier growth phase than many assume.
The Role of AI and Blockchain in the Middle East
Bitcoin began 2020 at $7,174 but dropped 27% to $5,227 by March. It then rebounded 129% to reach $11,990 in August, ultimately ending the year at $28,993 — a 304% increase from its price at the beginning of the year. Pal said for the market to keep expanding, it needs to keep attracting the “bigger players.” He recounted his recent trip to the Middle East, where he met with Sovereign Wealth Funds and said that most had a bullish outlook on crypto: “The mandate across the entire region, from Saudi to Abu Dhabi to Dubai to Bahrain to Qatar, is AI and blockchain.” This emphasis on AI and blockchain suggests a significant potential for growth in the crypto market.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the current crypto market pattern is mirroring that of 2017, with a potential for significant growth in the coming months. The weakening US dollar, macroeconomic data, and the emphasis on AI and blockchain in the Middle East all suggest that the crypto market is poised for expansion. As the market continues to attract bigger players and the global economy shifts, it will be interesting to see how the crypto market evolves in the coming years.
